Sunday, March 11, 2012

(Lucky) Thirteen Games Remain

Marcus Foligno poses with the puck with which
he scored his first career NHL goal.
(Andre Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images)
The Buffalo Sabres returned to winning last night with a hard-fought shootout victory over the seventh-place and playoff-bound Ottawa Senators.  In a game that featured 67 hits and two unusual goals (highlights here), the score was a roller coaster as the two teams alternated goals to a 3-3 tie heading into extra time.

The Sabres' first two goals came courtesy of two knee-hockey rivals in Nathan Gerbe with his sixth goal and Tyler Ennis with his eighth.  The third goal was scored by 20-year-old Marcus Foligno, who in his second career game, banked the puck off an Ottawa player and past goaltender Ben Bishop for his first career goal at the 14:06 mark of the third period.

Holding on from there, the game endured through overtime and demanded a shootout to decide a winner.  With remarkable saves on the first two Ottawa shooters by Ryan Miller and goals by Jason Pominville and Ennis on the last two Buffalo attempts, the Sabres departed Scotiabank Place with two indispensable points.  Miller made 33 saves on 36 shots earning him the win and is now 8-1-1 in his last ten starts.

After their success in Canada's capital, the Sabres currently possess a 32-29-8 record good for 72 points.  They are sharing ninth place in the Eastern Conference standings with the Winnipeg Jets, who have an identical record through 69 games.  Both teams trail the eighth place Washington Capitals by two points, but the Caps have a game in hand.  The Sabres' playoff odds, according to SportsClubStats, increased 3.2 to 13.2% after last night's games.

With thirteen games remaining on the schedule (six home, seven away), the Sabres need to reach 90 points for a realistic chance at taking the eighth and final playoff spot.  At this point, an 8-3-2 or 9-4-0 finish would accomplish just that number.  Looking at their remaining opponents, seven of the Sabres' remaining games are against teams currently holding playoff positions.

PlayoffStatus has Buffalo's strength of schedule ranked ninth-toughest in the East at 49%.  Strength of schedule is the combined winning-percentage of your opponents.  Both the Jets and Capitals have a 50% strength of schedule remaining.  The Sabres have a tough road schedule still to come that includes visits to the Panthers, Rangers, Capitals, and the Flyers and Bruins to close the season.

Next in action tomorrow, the Sabres return home to take on the Montreal Canadians in yet another must-win game with two points up for grabs.  It will be the fifth of six meetings this season between the two divisional opponents with the Sabres leading the season series 3-1.  The puck drops a little after 7:00pm at the First Niagara Center.  Follow me on Twitter for game-day updates and stats every morning up until puck-drop.

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