Hockey Day in America & Playoffs By The Numbers

Sunday, February 19th was the NHL's 2012 edition of Hockey Day in America, which featured five nationally televised NHL games along with all 30 AHL teams in action throughout the day.  The Buffalo Sabres were awarded a game on this special day for the second consecutive year (the Sabres hosted the Washington Capitals in a 2-1 loss on this day last season).  This year, the Pittsburgh Penguins descended upon the First Niagara Center to take on the Sabres in one of three regional games at the 12:30pm time slot.  The Sabres emerged victorious, defeating the Penguins by a score of 6-2 in a game that featured three point games from Derek Roy, Jason Pominville and Christian Ehrhoff.  Between the pipes, Ryan Miller made 24 saves on 26 shots for his 17th win; his most notable save of the game pictured below.

Buffalo's Ryan Miller makes a second period save on a breakaway
by Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin; the NHL's leading point-scorer.
(Photo by Jen Fuller/NHLI via Getty Images)

In conjunction with the 6-0 win over the Boston Bruins 12 days ago (also nationally televised), another six-goal win at home over a brute opponent has fans with their eyes peeled to the contingency of the playoffs in Buffalo again.  After all, the Sabres are only seven points absent of the 8th and final seed with 23 games remaining on the schedule.  But crunching the numbers, glancing at history and forming realistic projections might add minor numbness to any hope fans may possess.  After the jump, we'll take a look at some intriguing numbers and percentages.

As of this posting, the Sabres chances of reaching the playoffs are at a meek 0.7%.  They currently carry 57 points and are located 14th in the Eastern Conference standings.  The ensuing table displays the end of season point total for the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference over the last ten NHL seasons to be played in full (note the 2004-05 season was lost due to the labor dispute).

93 (2010-11) 88 (2009-10) 93 (2008-09) 94 (2007-08) 92 (2006-07)

92 (2005-06) 91 (2003-04) 83 (2003-03) 87 (2001-02) 88 (2000-01)

These numbers reveal to us that the average end of season point total for the 8th seed over the last ten seasons is 90.1 points.  The Toronto Maple Leafs currently hold 8th in the standings and are predicted to finish the season 12-8-3, with 91 points.  In order for the Sabres to conclude with 90 points or more, they need to shoulder a minimum winning percentage of .750%.  That's closing at least 15-5-3.  Projections have the Sabres concluding the year 10-11-2 making for a total of 79 points. A finish of that nature would land them 13th or 14th and out of the playoffs.  Winning three out of four the rest of the way is without a doubt a daunting challenge no matter the opponents; but as Muhammed Ali said, "Impossible is nothing."  No team can be ruled out until the math says so.

Derek Roy celebrates his third period shorthanded goal
which put the Sabres ahead 5-2.
(Photo by Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images)

Looking at their remaining schedule, the Sabres have 9 more games to play at home and 14 on the road.  The glaring hurdles at home will be when the Bruins (Feb 24) and Penguins (Mar 30) come to town.  On the road, the Sabres will face the challenges of visiting the Sharks, Canucks, Senators and Panthers, alongside two games at MSG to take on the Conference leading New York Rangers and two at TD Garden to face the rival Northeast Division leading Bruins.  In their 23 remaining games, the Sabres clash with 18 different opponents.  They have yet to see four of them this season (SJ, VAN, COL, MIN) and are 17-19-6 against the teams they have.  The schedule doesn't lie.  It is more than safe to say their work is cut out for them as far as a playoff run.  It will not just take a dramatic run of victories, but rather an extraordinary run of victories against playoff bound teams.

We can all affirm that numbers are only numbers and projections are only projections.  There is no way of knowing the actual outcome of the season and that's why they play the games.  But if asked to present your own personal thoughts, are you accompanying the party shouting "Playoff Run", or the alternative clamoring "Fail For Mikhail"?

With only seven days and three games remaining until the trade deadline, how will Sabres' General Manager Darcy Regier handle the phones in the franchise's front office?  Head on over to my friends at Die By The Blade and read their great write-up on "Regier's Deadline Tendencies" to help formulate an idea of how our GM might steer the team.

The Sabres are next in action when they play host to the New York Islanders tomorrow night at the First Niagara Center.